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Dr Paul Turner

Consultant in Public Health

While planning for an influenza pandemic, I developed a system dynamic model of a pandemic wave using Netlogo based on the Kermack-Mckendrick SIR Model. This allowed us to run a number of scenarios for planning purposes and provided useful insights on how we could reduce the number of deaths resulting from a pandemic. In addition, I created agent based models of an antiviral collection point and a surge clinic (i.e. a nurse led clinic to be opened when the local primary care service became overwhelmed).

All the above proved helpful during the swine flu outbreak in 2009. At the time of the outbreak we had acquired Simul8 Professional and I created a discrete event simulation model of an antiviral collection point. This was used by me with a community services colleague to finalise the configuration of local antiviral collection points.

Given this experience, I now wish to extend the use of simulation and modelling to other aspects of health and health care. Although I am interested in all aspects of simulation and modelling, I am particularly interested applying system dynamic modelling and systems thinking to strategic planning in public health and health care.


Wigan Council


Health Services


01942 404257


People: Childrens, Adults and Families
Wigan Council
Wigan Life Centre(South site)
College Avenue
Wigan WN1 1NJ


  • System dynamics modelling for heath and social care strategic planning.
  • Discrete event simulation of health and social care pathways.

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