Outline

Derbyshire PCT was moving services from one hospital in Derby to another newer hospital on the other side of Derby. This change extended the distance some patients had to travel and there was a possibility that some Derbyshire registered patents on the edge of the county would migrate to the nearby Nottinghamshire hospitals. It was therefore imperative that the two PCTs had properly researched figures for the likely effect on patient attendance at their hospitals.

Method

We analysed ¾ million patient activity (HES) data using our geographic modelling system and found a number of characteristics that we could use to model the patient activity. We developed two scenarios to predict the likely changes using mathematical models supplied by the academic partners involved in the project. These scenarios provided a comprehensive breakdown of attendance figures showing how demand might change at each hospital following the move.

We then attended a meeting at which staff from both PCTs attended where we used our geographic modelling system to analyse the results using maps, charts and various tables. This allowed both parties to understand what the findings meant and how we had obtained them.

Context

This project provided the two Assistant Director of Commissioning and Performance for Derby and Nottingham PCT with two forecasts for the likely change in attendance at their hospitals. They also understood the basis on which these figures had been calculated and felt that the actual attendance was going to be somewhere between the two figures.

Using this information they decided that the change was within a range they could handle without extensive changes to the current resource arrangements. They then planned in monitoring so that they adjust resources when the service change occurred later that year.

Evaluation

“The final analyses have proved extremely useful in helping the PCT understand the impact of the hospital’s move on its commissioning plans and how to monitor whether or not these models are accurate predictors of patient choice. During the whole programme, I have been extremely impressed by the level of commitment, support and knowledge (both of our circumstances and the optimum modelling techniques) displayed by MapPlace and their academic partners and we would certainly use them again on similar projects.”

David Arrowsmith : Head of Information, Derbyshire County Primary Care Trust

“MapPlace provided a flexible and responsive service that enabled us to develop scenarios for the impact of a service location change.  We will use the outputs generated from their data analysis to monitor the impact of the service change when it occurs later this year.”

Tony Madge : Assistant Director of Commissioning and Performance Nottinghamshire County PCT

Further Information

PDF with more information on this project:

http://www.mapplace.co.uk/information/pdfs/derbycasestudy.pdf